Hypothesis worksheet
Test your explanation before you commit to it
List the possible explanations, rate each piece of evidence against each one, and see which explanation has the least evidence against it.
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How to use it. Write the question, then at least two explanations that could be true (for example "phishing" and "legitimate admin task"). Add evidence you actually observed and mark whether it is consistent with each explanation, inconsistent, or neutral. The score counts the weight of evidence against each one, because disproving is stronger than confirming.
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Where the evidence points
Assessment
Likelihood and confidence are different things. "Likely, with low confidence" is a fair thing to write when the sources are thin. The likelihood words follow the published ICD 203 scale; see the reference page.
Thinking traps to watch for
- Anchoring: the first explanation you hear tends to stick. List alternatives before you look for proof.
- Confirmation bias: we notice evidence that agrees with us. Ask what would prove you wrong.
- Absence of evidence: a missing log may mean nothing happened, or that nothing was recording.
- Familiar equals safe: a trusted tool name can still be used by someone else.
- Sunk cost: if the evidence turns against your theory, say so, even after hours of work.